Labour could win if Jacinda Ardern was leader – Poll

A new political poll carried out by the Conservative Party finds Labour’s new deputy Jacinda Ardern could potentially carry Labour to victory if she took over from Andrew Little as leader.

The poll, carried out between 8th and 15th March, asked a sample of nearly 1200 people how they would vote if an election were held today, then asked them a surprise follow-up question: “If Jacinda Ardern was Labour leader instead of Andrew Little, which party would you vote for if an election were held today?”

Astoundingly, in that scenario, Labour moved into top spot in the poll, more than three percentage points clear of National – a clear signal that this year’s election could become a close-fought race.

Conservative Party leader Leighton Baker says although the poll was carried out online among a pool of social media users, the results are statistically valid as they measure a voting shift within the survey sample itself if the opportunity came to vote for an Ardern-led Labour Party.

“Online polls are normally treated more sceptically because their samples are less random than standard phone polls, but findings of attitudinal shifts within such polls are valid because they measure changes within the same survey sample.

“In this case we were stunned to find that a promotion of Jacinda Ardern to the leadership of Labour saw the party move from four percentage points behind National to three percentage points in front. An Ardern-led Labour took votes away from National and NZ First, although the Greens were hardest hit by the prospect of Jacinda Ardern.”

Baker says the trend of a swing to Jacinda emerged on day one after the first 200 votes were in, and remained at almost the same ratio right through the next six days of the poll. He noted it is the first poll to actually pose the question about Ardern’s impact as a potential leader, but he was also surprised to see how active on social media NZ First supporters are.

“Being an online poll we took certain precautions to prevent repeat voting, such as allowing only one vote per IP address for the duration of the poll, and using a separate URL – www.thegreatkiwipoll.com – to keep the poll unbranded, but right from the start there was a clear lead for National and also a surprisingly strong challenge by NZ First to the Andrew Little-led Labour team.

“Question one actually found NZ First in second place, ahead of Labour in third, if an election were held today. Now I don’t believe for a minute that Andrew Little’s support is as low as 20% or that Winston’s support is running as high in the general population as the 21% share his party records in this poll, but it may well be higher than the 11% support ordinary phone polls are recording, and that may illustrate a weakness of phone polls which have traditionally surveyed landline users, whereas Gen X and Millennials are more likely to be on smartphones and social media. It may also indicate that Winston’s followers are more motivated than Labour and National supporters, which should be a warning to the major parties.

“Our poll found a level of support for the Conservative Party at more than 4%, and that’s a pretty accurate reflection of the core conservative support over the past couple of decades in various forms. They are not finding it in the landline polls, but we know our support is higher than the landline polls indicate.”

Leighton Baker says there are other questions in the Conservative Party poll that transcend tribal political allegiances and whose sheer margins make them statistically valid as well.

“We wanted to take the pulse of kiwis on some pretty big issues. We found 70% support for Binding Citizens’ Initiated Referenda, which shows there is massive cross-party support from New Zealand voters for making politicians accountable.

“BCIR is a core policy of the Conservative Party. If we form part of the next coalition, we will make sure governments respect the wishes of the people from now on,” says Baker. “You have my word on it.

“Another big finding is that 79% of those sampled reject the philosophy of globalism and supreme international law. This shows New Zealanders have the same concerns that gave rise to Brexit in the UK and Trump in the USA. Political parties and the media ignore this at their peril. This poll result shows a massive majority of kiwis from across the political spectrum share the same concerns as Conservatives do, and those concerns can no longer be swept aside and dismissed. New Zealanders want control of their country to ultimately remain in voters’ hands, not be delegated away to the UN and international treaties.”

Baker says the party will carry out more polling on other major issues in the next few weeks.

With a sample size of almost 1,200, the margin of error is 3%.

Results for ‘1. If an election were held today, which party would you most likely vote for?’
General
Voting TypePoll IDPoll CreatedLast UpdatedStatus
Anonymous voting only241970812 Feb 201715 Mar 2017

Results
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AnswerVotes
Act4.2% / 49
Conservative NZ4.7% / 55
Greens15.4% / 181
Labour19.7% / 232
Maori0.3% / 4
National23.7% / 279
NZ First21.0% / 247
United Future0.4% / 5
Not sure6.6% / 78
Other4.1% / 48
Total votes 08 Mar – 15 Mar: 1,178

Results for ‘2. Which main party leadership team would be most competent to run the country?’
General
Voting TypePoll IDPoll CreatedLast UpdatedStatus
Anonymous voting only242402302 Mar 201715 Mar 2017

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AnswerVotes
National’s Bill English & Paula Bennett40.2% / 453
Labour’s Andrew Little & Jacinda Ardern40.3% / 455
Not sure19.5% / 220
Total votes 08 Mar – 15 Mar: 1,128

Results for ‘3. Which main party leadership team would you personally prefer to run the country?’
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Voting TypePoll IDPoll CreatedLast UpdatedStatus
Anonymous voting only242402402 Mar 201715 Mar 2017

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AnswerVotes
National’s Bill English & Paula Bennett39.0% / 399
Labour’s Andrew Little & Jacinda Ardern43.5% / 445
Not sure17.6% / 180
Total votes 08 Mar – 15 Mar: 1,024

Results for ‘4. Which of the following best describes New Zealand’s elected politicians?’
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Voting TypePoll IDPoll CreatedLast UpdatedStatus
Anonymous voting only242402802 Mar 201715 Mar 2017

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AnswerVotes
They respect the wishes of the people9.9% / 95
They don’t respect the wishes of the people33.8% / 326
They act as if they are Elite33.2% / 320
I’m happy with our political establishment23.1% / 223
Total votes 08 Mar – 15 Mar: 964

Results for ‘5. Do you think the Brexit was:’
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Voting TypePoll IDPoll CreatedLast UpdatedStatus
Anonymous voting only242403002 Mar 201715 Mar 2017

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AnswerVotes
A classic case of people power bringing politicians to heel48.9% / 474
A big mistake36.9% / 358
Not sure14.2% / 138
Total votes 08 Mar – 15 Mar: 970

Results for ‘6. Would you like to see New Zealand politicians compelled to respect the public’s wishes on controversial policies if expressed in a binding referendum?’
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Voting TypePoll IDPoll CreatedLast UpdatedStatus
Anonymous voting only242416903 Mar 201715 Mar 2017

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AnswerVotes
Yes70.4% / 675
No20.4% / 196
Not sure9.2% / 88
Total votes 08 Mar – 15 Mar: 959

Results for ‘7. Do you support the globalist ideal of countries increasingly giving up national sovereignty under international law, or do you think the public should continue to have the final say in how their countries are run?’

General
Voting TypePoll IDPoll CreatedLast UpdatedStatus
Anonymous voting only242417303 Mar 201715 Mar 2017

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AnswerVotes
I believe in the ideals of global governance and supreme international law14.3% / 136
I believe countries and communities should be self-governing and the people should always have the final power to veto international treaties a government signs79.2% / 752
Not sure6.4% / 61
Total votes 08 Mar – 15 Mar: 949

Results for ‘8. Do you believe foreigners should be allowed to buy New Zealand houses if their own countries don’t allow New Zealanders to buy homes over there?’
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Voting TypePoll IDPoll CreatedLast UpdatedStatus
Anonymous voting only242417403 Mar 201715 Mar 2017

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AnswerVotes
Yes, our moral commitment to free investment and free trade requires us to allow foreigners to buy up our properties15.2% / 142
No, foreign investors can too easily dominate New Zealand’s small market and finite land supply, and there must be controls, especially when we don’t have the same property rights78.1% / 729
Not sure6.6% / 62
Total votes 08 Mar – 15 Mar: 933

Results for ‘9. Do you think prostitution would be better controlled by cracking down on clients like they do in other countries and making it illegal for men to buy sex services from vulnerable women?’
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Voting TypePoll IDPoll CreatedLast UpdatedStatus
Anonymous voting only242417503 Mar 201715 Mar 2017

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AnswerVotes
Yes, young girls are being lured in by ‘easy money’ but prostitution has long term psychological and health impacts and clients should bear responsibility23.7% / 219
No, as long as the participants are consenting adults the police should not get involved53.1% / 490
Yes, but only where it can be proven a woman is vulnerable or there has been any attempted solicitation in a public place16.5% / 152
Not sure6.7% / 62
Total votes 08 Mar – 15 Mar: 923

Results for ’10. If Jacinda Ardern was Labour leader instead of Andrew Little, which party would you vote for if an election were held today?’
General
Voting TypePoll IDPoll CreatedLast UpdatedStatus
Anonymous voting only242418303 Mar 201715 Mar 2017

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AnswerVotes
Act4.1% / 38
Conservative NZ4.8% / 44
Greens13.1% / 120
Labour25.4% / 233
Maori0.2% / 2
National22.1% / 203
NZ First19.8% / 182
United Future0.4% / 4
Not sure6.4% / 59
Other3.6% / 33
Total votes 08 Mar – 15 Mar: 918

Results for ’11. Do you approve or disapprove of the government raising the superannuation age to 67 for people born after 1972?’
General
Voting TypePoll IDPoll CreatedLast UpdatedStatus
Anonymous voting only242489107 Mar 201715 Mar 2017

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AnswerVotes
Yes47.1% / 426
No36.4% / 329
Not sure16.6% / 150
Total votes 08 Mar – 15 Mar: 905